Earthquake Prediction by Tiempe

Earth Sensitive quake predictions

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

*For Saturday, 29 September 2012.

LEGEND for OVERVIEW: Size = My surety of area for quake.
Red Circle = Probable quake to STRONG quake.
Triangle = Very Strong/Stronger quake (Usually takes extra days).
Blue Circle, etc. = Uncertainty of symptom area for probable quake.  
Gold Circle = Volcanic symptom.   
(I will give a probable magnitude.)

Places to watch.

Good luck to all.

For Saturday, 29 September 2012.

(Special thread at bottom of list - opinion.)

(Possible major quaking in Honshu, Japan area
as posted on: For Wednesday, 29 August 2012.)

(I am going to distinguish chunk symptoms that
are expected to manifest on the daily list in black.)
------------------------------------2012-09-28   11:36:57.0    36.90     N      143.71     E      10     4.9     OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

2012-09-29   17:37:40.7    35.01     N      140.03     E      57     4.8     NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-09-29   10:11:15.0    39.81     N      143.90     E      10     4.7     OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
2012-09-29   07:34:43.3    35.55     N      141.19     E      35     4.7     NEAR EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

(58.93S 24.98W) (Probable 4.5
and probable multiples)
------------------------------------2012-09-29   16:13:30.1    56.19     S      26.91     W      82    4.7     SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION

Yakutat,AK area (60.05N 139.84W) (2 different
symptoms. Probable 4 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------2012/09/28     16:18:22     52.86N     132.42W     20.0*     2.7ML         59 km WSW of Sandspit,BC
2012/09/28     08:36:04     50.56N     130.30W     10.0*     3.4Mw         204 km W of Pt. Hardy,BC

2012/09/29     13:02:21     62.25N     124.12W     1.0*     3.5ML         159 km W of Fort Simpson,NT
2012/09/29     00:05:05     49.58N     125.62W     1.0*     1.5ML         36 km ESE of Gold R.,BC

2012/09/30     07:09:06     49.56N     127.24W     22.8     2.0ML         83 km W of Gold R.,BC

(Probable 4 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------2012-09-27   12:38:39.0    37.67     N      95.91     E      8       4.7     NORTHERN QINGHAI, CHINA
2012-09-27   10:43:26.1    43.65     N      84.53     E      13     3.7     NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA
(2 days early)
2012-09-29   21:35:03.4    41.67     N      73.02     E      1       4.6     KYRGYZSTAN?

Reykjanes Ridge area (57.77N 32.38W)
(Probable 4 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------(Nothing found)

New Madrid, MO area (36.500N 89.530W)
(Probable 2.5 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------1.3  2012/09/28 05:05:53 36.440N 89.488W  7.2    7 km ( 4 mi) NNW of Tiptonville, TN
2.2  2012/09/28 01:40:52 36.067N 89.800W  8.9   19 km (12 mi) SSW of Hayti, MO

3.1  2012/09/29 23:09:02 32.815N 96.962W  5.0   11 km ( 7 mi) W   of Dallas, TX
3.4  2012/09/29 23:05:00 32.842N 96.976W  5.0   15 km ( 9 mi) W   of University Park, TX
1.4  2012/09/29 04:30:14 36.631N 89.556W 10.8    6 km ( 3 mi) NNW of New Madrid, MO

Ionian Sea area (37.37N 20.68E) (Second day
symptoms. May include Southern Italy.
Probable 3 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------2012-09-29   17:59:05.0    42.47     N      13.45     E      8       2.4     CENTRAL ITALY
2012-09-29   17:31:35.0    37.34     N      16.07     E      10     2.0     IONIAN SEA
2012-09-29   02:00:45.0    35.34     N      22.70     E      1       2.8     CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA
2012-09-29   01:06:21.0    38.17     N      14.91     E      131    2.1     SICILY, ITALY
2012-09-29   00:59:10.0    38.14     N      14.88     E      10     2.1     SICILY, ITALY
2012-09-29   00:39:45.0    38.65     N      14.74     E      255    4.6     SICILY, ITALY
2012-09-29   00:37:10.0    42.82     N      12.93     E      9       2.1     CENTRAL ITALY
2012-09-29   00:29:37.0    42.83     N      12.93     E      9       2.0     CENTRAL ITALY

HONDURAS area (15.49N 86.40W)
(Probable 4 and probable multiples)
------------------------------------12/09/29 19:23:55  12.08N  87.90W    7.2   2.7ML  Oceano Pacífico de Nicaragua
12/09/29 18:40:46  10.72N  83.66W   20.7   3.3ML  Costa Rica
12/09/29 16:41:59  12.57N  87.88W   68.2   3.0ML  Frente al Cosigüina
12/09/29 13:39:21  12.32N  88.65W    4.4   2.8ML  Frente al Golfo de Fonseca
12/09/29 10:53:42  10.69N  83.60W   15.0   3.6ML  Costa Rica
12/09/29 10:19:46  12.05N  85.34W    2.0   1.7ML  Nicaragua
12/09/29 10:06:26  11.24N  85.67W  180.1   3.1ML  Rivas
12/09/29 06:06:39  10.89N  87.01W   15.0   2.7ML  Frente a La Boquita y Casares
12/09/29 06:04:50  11.39N  86.69W    5.7   2.5ML  Frente a La Boquita y Casares
12/09/29 05:36:48  11.56N  87.20W   23.0   3.3ML  Frente a Puerto Sandino
12/09/29 04:18:47  11.46N  86.86W   12.2   1.5ML  Frente a Masachapa

12/09/30 21:20:16  10.07N  85.58W    0.0   3.8MC  Costa Rica
12/09/30 20:08:47  10.68N  83.77W   14.8   3.6MC  frontera entre Nic. y Costa Rica
12/09/30 20:08:46  10.77N  83.86W    0.0   4.0MC  frontera entre Nic. y Costa Rica
12/09/30 20:07:09  10.62N  83.79W   32.2   3.4MC  Costa Rica
12/09/30 20:05:55  10.59N  83.56W   32.9   4.0ML  Costa Rica
12/09/30 14:13:50  11.51N  86.33W   64.6   3.1MC  Frente a El Astillero
12/09/30 13:22:00  11.38N  86.26W   16.7   3.0MC  Frente a El Astillero
12/09/30 10:06:50  10.66N  83.60W   26.8   3.5ML  Costa Rica
12/09/30 03:08:16   9.28N  84.73W   15.0   2.4ML  Oceano Pacífico de Costa Rica
12/09/30 02:47:44   8.83N  84.95W   15.0   2.8ML  Oceano Pacífico de Costa Rica
12/09/30 02:47:09  10.89N  84.23W   15.0   1.7ML  frontera entre Nic. y Costa Rica
12/09/30 00:28:00  12.35N  88.31W    0.1   2.8ML  Frente al Golfo de Fonseca
(Nothing found for Honduras.)

**Unplaced quakes using EMSC listing.
2012-09-29   16:12:24.3    51.20     N      15.96     E      10     2.5     POLAND
2012-09-29   14:12:05.0    13.87     N      120.69     E      180    5.1     MINDORO, PHILIPPINES
2012-09-29   11:53:59.8    16.39     N      98.22     W  10    4.2     OAXACA, MEXICO
2012-09-29   11:24:34.0    6.11      N      92.78     E      31     5.1     NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
2012-09-29   09:52:51.0    26.95     N      143.80     E      20     4.7     BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2012-09-29   07:52:19.0    35.94     N      30.04     E       5      3.3     EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA
2012-09-29   07:11:17.0    16.43     N      98.36     W  40    5.5     GUERRERO, MEXICO
2012-09-29   06:17:07.6    44.16     N      127.75     W  10    4.2     OFF COAST OF OREGON
2012-09-29   05:26:11.0    7.1 3     N      71.88     W     40     4.5     APURE, VENEZUELA
2012-09-29   04:30:28.7    51.45     N      16.22     E      10        2.4     POLAND
2012-09-29   00:59:48.0    34.67     N      106.78     W      6    3.5     NEW MEXICO

Peace to all.

(Thread about Italian scientists found guilty.
I have updated this thread today but I will
not update it anymore. Please go to the 
website to read more if others post.  It is on
the Earthwatchers Board.)

Date: September 25, 2012 at 19:21:31
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]

URL: Four-Year Prison Terms Sought for Italian Earthquake Experts

The scientists and other experts in Italy who have been in the dock for years for failing to adequately convey seismic risk to the residents of L'aquila prior to their April 9, 2009 M 6.3 earthquake were found guilty and handed four year jail sentences.

This profoundly disturbing, though an appeal will be forthcoming.

Date: September 25, 2012 at 19:51:09
From: JohnV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: disturbing but expected

Guilty but getting freed on appeal has been the guesswork for a while.
Italy found a great way to undermine seismic hazard mitigation for many

Date: September 26, 2012 at 00:59:46
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: disturbing but expected - And a little more

Hi John,

Yes. I've known that for many months.

However, don't take this personally, but I think the science community let the guys down.

One avenue that was never employed was "global activism" and that could have been accomplished by more press from the science community voicing public disdain for such an outrageous set of circumstances. And to that end Global Voices could have stepped in "if asked" and they have huge resources and power where it matters.

To think that one Chinese blogger who complained about unsafe schools in China and was jailed could be aided by persons from nearly every government's dignitaries around the world, yet for the science guys in Italy no one goes to bat for them in a serious way and in my book on injustice it earns the science community a black eye.

Though I realize science folks are not big on offering demonstrations on matters of injustice. I've only heard of one prior case regarding the Chagos matter of habitation where two scientists got up and walked out of a meeting because the island residents who needed to be in attendance to make an important decision were not invited.

Yet, just months before the Emilia, Italy quakes one scientist from Switzerland who was in residence in Italy and had been their science orgs director stated in the press he didn't think anything of import was going to occur in the region following the quakes in Verona and Parma.

He was wrong and it was more likely than not a larger quake was going to occur as it had been 92 years since the last event and with two already coming up the Appenine Ridge, why not. But did they arrest him when Emilia went? No. But they gave him a job in the Civil Protection Agency at a rate of pay he found accommodating.

So now the Calabrian Arc is going active and who's leading their science org? A man with a degree in physical education. It's truly outlandish. I guess he can say in all honesty he has no idea what may occur if someone calls on him while he says "soccer anyone?"

The whole thing stinks to high heaven, but some of you could have made a difference and you left those guys hanging out to dry.

So remember these words when the time comes "The pen is mightier than the sword."


Date: September 26, 2012 at 08:32:23
From: JohnV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: not quite

"A man with a degree in physical education."

Physics. Slightly different than physical education.

"The whole thing stinks to high heaven, but some of you could have made
a difference and you left those guys hanging out to dry."

A bit harsh and hysterical. It is a political problem, which is why they are
likely to be exonerated at the next level. Italian prosecutors have reacted
poorly to Americans lecturing them on their medieval justice system.

Date: September 26, 2012 at 11:22:28
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: not quite

Hi John,

Apparently you don't read the Italian press or perhaps other global press. The new director of INGV is in fact a man with a degree in physical education.

When he was selected it made news and it came with comments from scientists including the scientist who had been their director for 30 years and they could not believe such a decision had been made with an emphasis that they are monitoring seven active volcanoes in that country and he would not know how to steer the direction of anything.

Though I have to say he's truly eye candy. Light hair, youthful, nice tan, good physique; what else does one need?

Date: September 26, 2012 at 08:48:00
From: JohnV, [DNS_Address]
Subject: I offered my opinion

although I'm not sure these links will work.

Date: September 26, 2012 at 12:01:05
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: I offered my opinion

Thanks John,

If time permits I'll read your contributions, but at present I'm on a deadline; this being the last week before I return to working on my book series.

Hopefully one day in the future you folks in Seattle will appreciate a man with all the right stuff, though not sporting a mohawk like Bobak Ferdowski of NASA.


Date: September 26, 2012 at 08:02:27
From: marc / berkeley, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: disturbing but expected - And a little more

Hi Petra!

Yep, I agree with you, but you seem on fire on this issue. Maybe you needed to be the first point of light? I know you've followed this one so closely, and I've appreciated the updates. Sometimes an out of country perspective can help.

Is this the sign of the times for Italy; an offshoot of McCarthyism: free speech is being cutailed for fear of being labelled a "terrorist"? Maybe this is why no one in the country is speaking up. Fear of retaliation.

I am somewhat surprised, and discouraged by this outcome. Do they lynch meteorologists for poor weather forecasting or when floods occur? Or city planners when someone gets killed by an automobile? This bodes ill for the sciences and the scientists in Italy.

Disquieting portents of things to come our way next?

hope not!


PS. I wonder if this could find play on facebook?

Date: September 26, 2012 at 11:39:12
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: disturbing but expected - And a little more

Hi Marc,

I have been on fire since day one and I pushed the envelope in every direction one could go in to seek relief for those men and I've prayed for them every night, yet it was not to be.

Twice when direct warnings were issued people ignored them, yet 300,000 in Rome took a holiday a few months ago based upon a rumored warning from a long dead scientist from back in the 1920's.

I take it as a test of faith, yet it is the same elsewhere; crazy useless warnings are issued all of the time and it feels like prediction is a spectator sport awaiting the blood and guts seen at the Coliseum in Rome.

However, the powers that be inside of science circles wish to ignore precursory research. If they had started twenty or thirty years ago they'd have something on the table today, thus we have no progress.

But we'll get there. I have not lost faith nor direction either.


Date: September 25, 2012 at 20:26:42
From: Tiempe in Ohio, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Not expected by me...


Hi All,

I am full of consternation. It was inconceivable to me that they were even 'trying' these scientists for manslaughter! It's nuts!

Mother Earth does what has to be done and humans get an inkling but have little control over the matter.

Talk about killing the messenger!!!

There is nothing on this Earth that is certain and to convict these people of not-enough-warning is stupid!!

Really stupid!!

You can only give possible alerts. Nothing is certain.

I can understand the pain of people who lost family and friends but blaming innocents does nothing to heal that.

Lordy, the travesties on this Earth just seem to proliferate!

God bless us all!

Peace to all, Tiempe.

Date: September 26, 2012 at 11:18:01
From: Dona, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Not expected by me...

They cut their own throat,who is going to want to be a
geologist for the country now???
Also,they are ancient in law...a male is allowed to stay
at his mothers home under law until 26,you can't kick
the boy out,what a nightmare,lol.

Date: September 25, 2012 at 21:27:03
From: Phil in Los Angeles , [DNS_Address]
Subject: Change is certain.

One of the constants of the universe is change.

The other is the speed of light, theoretically.

Date: September 26, 2012 at 10:51:17
From: martin, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Ethical EQ prediction

I'd be interested in what might have transpired if
they said there would be an earthquake and then there
wasn't one. the panic looting and economic impacts may
have been substantial and would they have been liable in
that scenario?
Damned if they did or didn't?
Perhaps they need a proper mandate of their exact job
description so they know what they are allowed to do.

Date: September 26, 2012 at 11:50:04
From: Petra, [DNS_Address]
Subject: Re: Ethical EQ prediction

Hi Martin,

It already happened. During the quake swarm in the area of L'Aquila a scientist (not geoscientist), Giampaolo Guiliani issued a prediction for a M 6.0 quake based upon radon readings he was testing in Gran Sasso, 18 kms from L'Aquila.

Unfortunately he had never issued a prediction before and thus he missed the window and was poor on the radius, thus it didn't happen when he suggested. But the authorities came after him and told him to take his warning off of his web site and while people left Gran Sasso they went to L'Aquila for a week sending them into the heart of where the earthquake was to occur. Then they came back and the earthquake occurred. There was no looting during their absence.

Scientists say radon is not a good indicator of impending quakes, but in the end Guiliani received funding from NASA-Goddard to continue his research.